This page visualizes the forecasts and forecast performance for the focal target variables.
Most recent forecasts for focal variables
Forecasts submitted on 2025-04-29
Click here to view the baseline forecasts for the complete list of variables
Forecast analysis
Below are forecasts submitted 30 days ago and include the observations used to evaluate them (black points). Mouse over the figure to see the team id, and scroll to zoom.
Aggregated scores
Average skill scores of each model are shown for each target variable, aggregated across model (top), time of year (middle), and forecast horizon (bottom). The evaluation metrics is the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Lower CRPS values correspond a better performing model. CRPS is similar in concept to Mean Absolute Error (|mean(forecast) - observation|), except that it evaulates the full forecast distribution rather than the mean of the forecast. CRPS is in native units for the variable
Scores are shown by reference date and forecast horizon (in days).
Scores are averaged across all submissions of the model with a given horizon or a given reference_datetime using submissions made since 2025-03-31.